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October 19 -
Early Voting Begins Monday
11:45 AM
Early Voting in Texas begins Monday, October 20. While Early Voting once was a marginal
alternative voting method, in recent years it has become a substantial portion of the
voting electorate, in certain political jurisdictions.
At first the point of Early Voting was to allow alternative days for voters to vote, to allow
participation by voters whose schedules make impossible voting on Election Day. At the time
this was little more an extension of Absentee Voting, which still exists today as a
separate function.
At that time there were a handful of voting locations, so unless you lived in the immediate
vicinity of those locations, it was not very convenient. Despite that inconvenience, it was
convenient enough for other reasons to increase in popularity, leading to an expansion in
polling locations. Since the effect of Hurricane Ike has been to displace a lot of voters from
their normal polling places, the ability to rechannel voters to locations outside their
residential voting precincts has become critical in "Election Day" planning.
To those oldtimers, like this writer, who are used to an Election Day mentality, there are
slight disadvantages. The campaign truly is not over until Election Day. In 2000, five days
before Election Day but after Early Voting had ended everywhere, George Bush's DWI conviction
has revealed to the public for the first time. In earlier times it might well have killed his
chances of victory, particularly in a close race as this one was. Instead it appears to have
had no effect at all. How might the outcome have been different if there had been no Early Voting?
Be that as it may, times have changed. Early Voting is enough of an institution that campaign
strategies are built around it. Tomorrow it begins in Texas and elsewhere.
In the coming days we will be posting Early Voting information in voting places around the country.
To begin, here is
Early Voting in Harris County (Houston), Texas.
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October 19 -
General Powell Endorses Obama
Expected Endorsement Overshadows Massive Military Support for McCain
11:20 AM
Retired General Colin Powell, who is former Secretary of State, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a long time Republican, today endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President.
Powell said he sees Obama as potentially transformational, and can have great benefits for reforming America's image worldwide. He prefaced his support by saying that McCain had been a friend for 25 years, and that he has a lot of respect and admiration for him, but that the Republican Party had made a lot of mistakes that must be accounted for.
Only a decade ago Powell himself was considered a likely presidential candidate, and many would have bet on him to be the first African-American to win the White House. The popularity that he and President George H.W. Bush gained from winning the First Gulf War and bringing it to a swift conclusion did not last long for Bush. The problems he encountered, due to a downtown in the economy, led to his re-election defeat, but had no effect on Powell's popularity, as he stayed on during the Clinton Administration.
Powell eventually bowed out of any consideration for a presidential candidacy, saying did not have the "fire in the belly" required to make such a race. Now he says he is confident that Obama will be "ready to serve on Day One", and that he has "the intellectual vigor" to hold the job.
One liberal pundit called the endorsement the "final nail in the coffin of John McCain". Conservative pundit George Will said he heard "the cracking in the ice". But Powell's popularity took a real hit when he spoke at the United Nations on behalf of President George W. Bush's accusations against Iraq that quickly led to war.
If Powell's support, which amounts to nothing more than announcing he will vote for Obama, is to have any impact on the election, pollsters look to middle-aged white undecided voters to be most affected by this endorsement - a sort of validation of not only Obama, but also potentially for Powell as well.
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October 8 -
Clinton to Ring for Bell
Former President Stumps for Legislative Candidate
11:36 AM
Former President Bill Clinton will appear next week at a fundraiser for Chris Bell, candidates for Texas senate. Bell, the perennial candidate and occasional officeholder, has recently bumped his fundraising success into the big leagues previously held by his two closest Republican opponents, Austen Furse and Joan Huffman.
Clinton will appear at the home of Arthur Schechter, his former ambassador to Bermuda and an active fundraiser for Democratic Party candidates.
The normally Republican-leaning Senate District 17 is an open seat due to the resignation of Kyle Janek. Because the race is split between four Republican and two Democrat, and because Bell has high name identification ratings due to his previous runs for political office, he is considered to be competitive in this race. Now that he has brought his fundraising up to match his name ID, Bell's chances appear equal to anything a Republican opponent can muster. See an upcoming article for details of the October 6th financial filings.
Read here for more information about the candidates running for Texas Senate District 17.
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October 7 -
Let the Debate Begin!
Open Comments - Blog your Reactions Here
8:00 PM
McCain and Obama square off over the economy tonight. What are your reactions? Blog them in real time.
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October 7 -
Matula Surges Ahead of Incumbent in South-of-Houston race
Teachers Union Leader More than Doubles Republican Contributions
7:24 PM
Political conventional wisdom suggests than within a few years, Democrats may re-take the Texas House of Representatives. Teacher and teacher union leader Sherrie Matula's strong challenge to Republican incumbent John Davis suggests that the takeover could come as early as this year.
In yesterday's financial filings, Matula showed total contributions of nearly $126,000, more than two and a half times the $46,000+ contributions picked up by incumbent John Davis. And with one of those contributions coming in a lump of $22,500 from developer Bob Perry, Davis is clearly lagging. After expenditures, Matula has almost $137,000 on hand to Davis' $62,000. If the outcome of this races turns on advertising and name identification, Matula may have a real advantage.
For more information on the House District 129 race,
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October 7 -
Counting Down to Debate #2
Watching for a Deal-Killing Boo-Boo
9:45 PM
As McCain and Obama prepare for Tuesday night's debate, all eyes are on the presidential prize. With Obama up by roughly eight percentage points in national polls, and leading by 60 to 100 electoral votes, voters strain to hear about issues while pundits look for deal-killing gaffes.
Only about 12% of the voters remain undecided, which is why most viewers of the first two debates came away convinced their candidate had won. While Obama is playing to run out the clock, McCain is shooting more and more desperate long shots in the hope for some unlikely luck.
What would you like to see in the Tuesday debate - more of the same, or something more? Touch base with the Internet Voters Guide to let us know your thoughts before, during and after the debate.
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October 3 -
McCain Reported Pulling Resources From Michigan
State now swinging heavily to Obama
7:45 PM
The number of states still in play in next month's Presidential election are dwindling rapidly. Until recent weeks considered a key swing state, Michigan is now seen as strongly Obama, with one recent poll giving him a 51-38 lead over McCain.
Now Politico reports from two sources that the McCain campaign is shutting down most activities in the state and shifting resources to other battleground states. Important states still considered in play include Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania - and Maine, where a single congressional elector is in play.
CQ Politics currently rates the race as 265 Obama, 213 McCain, with 70 still unclear - and 271 electoral votes required to win. While the McCain campaign is still focusing on the six states mentioned above, CQ rates all but Ohio and Florida as unclear - with the rest tending to Obama.
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October 2 -
How do you rate the Vice Presidential Debate?
Were you pleased or disappointed by the candidates?
9:45 PM
Regardless of which candidate you support, most would agree that both candidates were being closely watched for verbal gaffes or signficant errors - and few were found, similarly the first presidential debate. Who do you think prevailed?
(17 comments)
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September 22 -
Paul Signals Support For Constitution Party Candidate
Reverses Earlier Pledge not to Endorse
1:27 PM
After months of speculation about his intentions in the November presidential election, U. S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) has endorsed Chuck Baldwin, the nominee of the Contitution Party.
Throughout the summer Paul has been pressured alternately to run as a third-party candidate, which he did as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988, or to support one. Earlier this month Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr, himself a converted Republican, called on Paul to be his running mate - even though he already had one.
Paul demurred and held a unity press conference for third-party candidates, which Barr did not attend.
On Monday, Rep. Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin. If you would like to read about Baldwin and the other candidates, including Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney,
CLICK HERE.
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September 21 -
Democratic Racism May Hurt Obama, AP Poll Shows
Up to 1/3 of White Democrats Could Turn Backs on Obama
12:23 PM
A recent Associated Press poll has turned up a significant portion of white Democrats apparently opposed to Barack Obama's candidacy for president on racial grounds.
The poll indicated as many as 1/3 of white Democrats may not want a black president, and that 30% of white Democrats could vote for Republican nominee John McCain. Since a lot of people will not openly call themselves racists, the poll instead asked racially-oriented social questions of those being polled, and used the results to draw inferences.
The indication was that Obama might have at least six points more of a lead (or subtracted from a lag) if he were white. However, the poll did not address the likelihood that if Obama were white, he could never have beaten Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries in the first place.
Another difficulty with the poll is that it is a nationwide result and does not show the potential impact in individual states, where the electoral votes are decided.
For more information on the six leading candidates for President,
CLICK HERE.
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September 21 -
Franken Continues Comedy Career During Campaign
Returns to Write SNL Skit
11:57 AM
Comedian and U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken has blurred the lines between entertainment and politics by co-writing a political skit about John McCain for Saturday Night Live.
Franken's background has been a sore point in his Senate campaign for some time, as some of his more controversial comedy writing and skits have been publicized. Franken is challenging Minnesota Republican incumbent Senator Norm Coleman, who took the occasion to blast Franken for running what he characterizes as an angry, negative campaign.
For more information on the Coleman-Franken battle, as well as the third-party contenders, CLICK HERE.
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September 19 -
Ron Paul Refuses to Endorse McCain
Phil Gramm Fails Effort to get Paul's support
11:45 AM
Phil Gramm, McCain's chief economic advisor supposedly banished to remote Asia, failed yesterday to get fellow Texas Republican Ron Paul's endorsement of John McCain.
Paul said, "I can't endorse somebody that disagrees with me on all the major issues -- on the federal reserve system, on spending and taxes, and No Child Left Behind, and McCain-Feingold, and foreign policy especially. I mean I could never support somebody who thinks that its funny to say 'bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.' That to me is not somebody I could endorse ever."
Gramm has a long history of controversy of his own, going back to his days as an economics professor at Texas A&M University, as a Democratic and then Republican Congressman from central Texas, then as U.S. Senator. During one re-election campaign he it was revealed that he had attempted to invest in the production of pornographic film project, only to have the pornographers turn down his participation. More recently he became Republican presidential candidate John McCain's chief economic advisor. When he criticized Americans as "whiners", McCain supposedly booted him from his campaign role, but his recent discussion with former presidential candidate Ron Paul makes it clear that his role is simply less public than before.
Paul was recently revealed to be the pledged choice of all Constitutional Party electors from Montana. For details,
READ HERE.
RELATED LINK
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September 18 -
Financial Crisis Could Change the Election
Shades of 1968 or 1932?
8:41 PM
The recent meltdown of American's major financial institutions are starting to make this year's
election look less like 1968 and more like 1932. Political pundits have compared this year's
election to any number of pivotal election years - most commonly 1968 or 1912.
Others have seen it as leading to the same kind of crisis that resulted from the
election of 1860 - when Lincoln's election provide the final straw in the secession
of the South from the Union.
In reality it is looking more like 1932, with 1929 tossed in for bad measure. Most
historians believe the 1929 stock market crash was a symptom, not the cause
of the looming Depression. So it might be this year, as the stocks of mismanaged financial
institutions point to underlying problems of a more fundamental nature, most of which have been
seen coming for a long time by those willing to look.
By that model, the Bush Administration is similar to the Harding-Coolidge Administrations, and
John McCain may get to be like Herbert Hoover without ever being president. A financial
collapse during a Republican admininstration seems tailor-made for a complete Democratic
takeover. Anything short of a stampede for the doors will signal electoral weakness on
Obama's part. But John McCain is not as callously self-sufficient as Hoover was -
being part of an army of 2 million does that to you - and Obama has yet
to earn the humility Roosevelt gained from his polio. In less than seven weeks we
will see how closely the results mirror the election of 1932, 1968, 1860 - or perhaps even 2000.
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September 17 -
Hurricane Haunts Hopeful Dems
Voter Turnout Likely Hurt by Evacuations
5:21 PM
The outcome of two key Texas Senate races may be affected by the evacuation of voters from Galveston. Split between Senate Districts 11 and 17, the traditionally Democratic Galveston will almost certainly see a lower than usual voter turnout in the elections that are less than seven weeks away.
Galveston attorney Joe Jaworski, Democrat, is challenging incumbent Senator Mike Jackson in Senate District 11. Houston attorney Chris Bell, also a Democrat, is running against five Democrats and Republicans for the special election in Senate District 17, recently vacated by Kyle Janek.
The hopes of both Democrats hinge on a strong Democratic turnout and a divided Republican turnout. In that regard, Bell has an advantage over Jaworski. Bell has one Democratic opponent and four Republican opponents, and has a smaller percentage of his voting base affected by the storm. Jaworski has a single Republican opponent, which means his best hope may be for disaffected Republican voters to stay home on Election Day.
Chances are, the Texas Secretary of State's office will work with area election administrators to find alternative methods for Galveston voters to participate in the election. Should the effort fail or run into difficulties, though, Jaworski's chance of upsetting Jackson is likely to become quite slender.
Read more about these races --
Click here for Senate District 11
Click here for Senate District 17
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September 16 -
CQ: Dole Re-Election Headed for Trouble
Strengths of 2002 may now be Weaknesses
9:41 AM
Congressional Quarterly has downgraded the likelihood of the re-election of U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina to "No Clear Favorite". A longtime figure in national affairs in both Democratic and Republican administrations, a moderate Republican when moderation has been unpopular, Dole may fall prey to time and the times. At 55, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagen is making a strong challenge to the 72-year-old incumbent.
Dole's vulnerability comes from several sources, such as Pres. Bush's unpopularity, economic woes, the perception that free trade has cost thousands of North Carolina jobs, and the fact that Barack Obama's presence on the ballot may cause black voters to turn out in record numbers for down-ballot Democrats as well as the presidential candidate. Hagen has a solid record and has been a competitive fundraiser, so she has been able to damage voter support for a once popular senator.
Polls right now show a slightly seesawing race, with both Dole and Hagen showing slight leads in different polls and at different times. Dole has been fighting back and there is evidence that a recent ad campaign has slowed down Hagen. Libertarian Chris Cole is showing signs of getting support just under ten percent, which may be the biggest single factor in Dole's susceptibility to electoral defeat.
The view our information on the three candidates for U.S. Senate from North Carolina, CLICK HERE.
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September 12 -
Obama Shifts to 49-State Strategy - or Less
Tells Texans to make "short trip" to New Mexico
5:40 PM
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has dissed his own 50-state strategy by abandoning Texas organizers.
Originally conceived by Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean, himself a former presidential candidate, the purpose of the 50-state strategy was to take no state for granted, and in the process help Democratic organizations in so-called red states to rebuild their campaign apparatuses.
No more. Texas Democrats saw the writing on the wall when the Obama campaign started using Texas as a training ground for organizers who would then be shipped to "battleground" swing states.
Now the Obama campaign is sending out e-mails asking Texans to make a "short trip" to New Mexico to help organize there. Only one little problem: a drive across Texas is equal to a drive halfway across the Moon - although Texas has better highways, of course.
Mapquest puts the Houston-to-New Mexico drive as 860 miles. For Dallasites it's a bit easier - 607 miles. Austinites will have to drive more than an hour longer - 690 miles. San Antonio is little better at 664 miles. Of course, in El Paso it's just over the border - but few people think the request is aimed at West Texans.
Some wags have suggest that Obama is abandoning the largest as well as the second largest state - Alaska being Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's home state.
48 states and counting.
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September 12 -
Bob Barr Wants Ron Paul as Running Mate
5:22 PM
Libertarian presidential candidate Robert Barr has called upon Congressman Ron Paul to be his running mate this fall.
It's a confusing request. Barr already has a running mate, entrepeneur Wayne Allyn Root, the mini-celebrity author of The Zen of Gambling, Millionaire Republican: Why Rich Republicans Get Rich, and similar get-rich books. Root was selected by the Libertarian National Convention. Although he has signed a letter pledging to withdraw if Paul wants the nod, it is not clear how easily Libertarian party rules would allow such a switch to take place.
Even more confusing is the fact that Barr is a former Republican Congressman, as was Ron Paul when he ran as the Libertarian nominee for president in 1988. And NOW Paul is a sitting Republican Congressman, who was Republican candidate for president this year, and who has pledged not to run with any other party this year.
Paul has said, among other things, that he is good friends with Constitution Party presidential candidate Chuck Baldwin, as well as with Barr, so he will stay out and kinda-sorta let folks think he is endorsing both. On top of that, he had a hard-fought primary battle for his House seat, due to this absences while running for president. No signs point to him accepting; most likely Barr just wanted to bask in the glow of Paul's popularity for a day or two.
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September 10 -
Democrats Nominate Comedian Al Franken
Minnesota Senate Race Officially a Joke
6:08 PM
Democrats who made fun of Ronald Reagan's Hollywood roots have their own candidate to explain: Al Franken. Yesterday's Minnesota primaries confirmed this fall's Senate fight to be a dustup between Republican Senator Norm Coleman and former Saturday Night Live writer and comedian Al Franken.
Franken and Coleman won't be going one on one: at least two more candidates have filed, Ernest Mailhot of the Socialist Workers Party (a Trotskyite group that splintered long ago from the Soviet Communist Party) and Minnesota Independence Party candidate Stephen Williams. Read more about all of them here.
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September 8 -
Bell Loses Bid to Kick Out Opponent
4 Republicans, 2 Democrats on SD 17 ballot
10:54 PM
When Chris Bell decided to run in the special election to fill the Senate District 17 seat left empty by Kyle Janek, it was very carefully considered.
At stake is his political future. Bell has become a perennial candidate on the verge of being an embarrassment, as witnessed by his 30% showing in the 2006 Governor's race - an all-time low for a Democrat running for governor in Texas. General consensus in the Democratic Party is that he only has one loss left in him.
So it's win or step back for good, since Bell takes himself seriously and would never want others to do otherwise.
His victory in this race has been predicated on a split-Republican vote with Democrats unified behind one candidate, him. It looked great until filing closed ten days ago and lo and behold, a second Democrat appeared within hours of the deadline. An African American Democratic lawyer from Missouri City, Stephanie Simmons. Simmons is strangely unavailable for media queries, since all serious candidate love free publicity.
Bell accuses her of being a Republican stooge, and took her to court over it. This afternoon a state district court judge in Austin held an emergency hearing, and ruled against Bell's contention that Simmons did not live in the district. She remains on the ballot.
Seeming proof of Bell's contention came in the form of former State Rep. Ron Wilson of Houston, present at the hearing in support of Simmons. Wilson was unseated in a hard-fought primary in 2004 because of Democratic discontent over his willingness to play footsy with the House Republican leadership.
Bell lost this battle and if he is not careful, he will miss the bigger picture: a schism in the local Democratic Party between the African American elected leadership and the white leadership, elected and otherwise. Many in the black leadership (Sylvester Turner, Al Edwards, Harold Dutton) try to work with the House leadership on a bipartisan basis, so they can achieve things for their districts, but many white activists bitterly insist that they should have nothing to do with the Republicans. Hard feelings abound, from all corners.
DeLay's redistricting plan cleverly turned the black community on Bell, who held the seat ultimately went to now-Congressman Al Green in 2004. Bell had to run directly against the black Democratic community in a bitter primary, and they took him to the cleaners.
Now comes the emergence of Simmons. If she truly attempts to organize the African American Democratic base in the district, in the Year of Obama, she can fracture Bell's vote so badly that even making it to the runoff might be a dicey proposition -- especially since Republican Joan Huffman recently lent her campaign a half million dollars. If she spends it seriously, Bell should feel the heat in this Republican-leaning district.
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August 29 -
More McCain VP Rumors
9:26 AM
Ninety minutes before Sen. John McCain announces his VP pick, rumors are starting to consolidate around a true outsider, the 44-year-old Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Know as "Sarah the Barracuda" when she played high school basketball, she has been governor a little more than a year, and before that mayor of a town the size of three Houston voting precincts. If true, McCain's fall strategy will no doubt hinge on taking disgrunted Hillary Clinton supporters away from the Democratic Party.
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August 28 -
DNC Closes with Obama Speech; GOP on Verge of Veep
10:42 PM
Obama's acclaimed acceptance speech was followed by McCain's classy TV commercial congratulating Obama on his accomplishment. Meanwhile, rumors of Sen. Hutchison for VP died as she revealed she had not been vetted; and Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Tim Pawlenti are all headed out to appear at McCain's VP announcement tomorrow.
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July 20 -
Houston - Green Confirms for Controller
12:15 AM
Houston City Councilman Ron Green confirmed his intention to run for City Controller in the 2009 Houston city elections. Green, serving his third term on the Houston City Council, is not allowed to run for re-election due to term limits.
Houston City Councilman Peter Brown is open campaigning for Mayor and Democratic Party events. He refers to himself as the best-funded mayoral candidate.
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August 11 -
EDWARDS UPDATE
12:15 AM
John Edwards has withdrawn as speaker for the Johnson-Rayburn-Richards fundraiser for the Harris County Democratic Party; his replacement may not be chosen for several weeks. Karl Rove has not withdrawn as speaker for the Republicans on August 12.
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August 10 -
PARTY UPDATES
12:15 AM
Houston area Republicans and Democrats have a lot on their minds this week. Karl Rove and Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick, darlings of Texas conservatives, are appearing at Tilman Fertita's Aquarium restaurant downtown, and Democrats have their own worries because the annual Johnson-Rayburn-Richards fundraiser scheduled for Sept. 20 at the Westin Galleria Hotel, which is the local party's major money raising event of the year, was scheduled to have former Senator John Edwards, darling of the Democrats until last week, as their keynote speaker. Edwards' recent personal troubles have made his political future look dubious, leaving the future of the fundraiser doubtful as well. Stay tuned for news about whether he is replaced as speaker.
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August 6 -
WE ARE LIVE!
12:15 AM
The Internet Voters Guide is now live, albeit with a lot of editorial content left to be filled in. So far we have a presidential race, three U.S. Senate races, three U.S. House races, and a basket of local races. More is on the way! Come back daily for updates. If you prefer e-mail notifications of our updates, CLICK HERE.
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July 27 -
Fairness Doctrine Announced
12:15 AM
The Internet Voters Guide has announced a
Fairness Doctrine to establish its ethical foundation.
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July 26 -
Internet Voters Guide Offers Special Ad Rates
12:15 AM
During the startup phase the Internet Voters Guide will offer extremely excellent ad terms for more information
CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS.
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August 27 -
Hutchison Rumors Abound
Governor or Veep?
7:00 PM
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, not for the first time, is rumored to be on the VP short list for a Republican presidential candidate. If last week's rumor - Chet Edwards for Democratic choice for VP - is any indication, this rumor is nothing more than a chance to make some top-tier Republicans feel good. On the other hand, VP candidate Hutchison could possibly take a good portion of Hillary Clinton's female support - perhaps enough to swing some key states. If this doesn't pan out, Hutchison can go back to being the center of Texas gubernatorial rumors.
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August 21 -
2009 Update
Houston Mayor
6:53 PM
Former Governor Mark White is allowing it to be known that he is seriously entertaining suggestions that he run for Mayor of Houston next year. Mayor Bill White, a likely gubernatorial candidate himself in 2010, is term-limited. The leading known candidates for mayor are City Councilman Peter Brown and City Controller Annise Parker. Mark White might, among other assets, bring real money to the table to compete with Peter Brown's real money. Whether he can compete 23 years after his last electoral victory remains to be seen.
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